This is an update as of April 10th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Sweden is added to the analysis.
Bar plots that represent the fitted parameters for each region is added to improve the readability.
The progress plot represents how many days away we are from the peak. A negative number means that the region is already passed the peak. Based on it, quite a lot of regions are already passed the peak.
The size of the outbreak is scaled to the total population of the region. For places like Italy and Spain, where the outbreak is more mature, it settled to about 0.05% of the total population.
The speed of the outbreak captures how fast the outbreak grows.
The skewness shows how the decay of the outbreak is relative to the ramp-up. A positive speed means we see a slow decay.
The colors in the skewness plot show the quality of the fit, a darker color representing a more confident fit.
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