This is an update as of April 11th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Today’s new addition is the state of Nevada which seems to have a high number of casualties compared to its population.
The bars are colored in all the plots by the quality of the fit. The darker ones have a better fit quality, while the whiter colored regions have a lower AICc coefficient.
The progress plot shows that the regions that have already passed the peak have a better fit quality.
Italy and Spain have higher skewness, while New York has a lower one, similar to the Spanish Flu outbreak it experienced in 1918. France has a skewness lower than 1, one hypothesis that can cause it is the more general usage of hydroxy-chloroquine in France. A few more data points are required to support that hypothesis.
The size plot shows that France, Spain and Italy which are most advanced in the outbreak, all settle on a size of 0.04% of the total population. One hypothesis could be that is the mortality percentage of the total population of the country for reaching heard immunity.
We’ll see in the next few days how the hypotheses will pan out.
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