This is an update as of April 12th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
The outbreak is progressing quite a lot, with about half of the chosen regions already making it past the peak.
For the regions with the best fit quality, the skewness is between 0.5 and 5. The New York City Spanish flu stands within this range with a skewness of 1.8
The speed of growth is the most uniform parameter and we can see that SARS-Cov2 has a large speed of growth, comparable to the New York City Spanish flu.
The 3 regions that are the furthest into the outbreak seem to converge to a size of 0.05% of the total of the population.
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