This is an update as of April 14th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
UK is added to the list. Its evolution is similar to Spain, Italy and France and it tends to plateau to a similar value in size, close to 0.05% of the population.
About 2/3 of the selected regions already passed the peak in terms of casualties.
The number of deaths went down most of these regions.
In the future, some more regions will be added that seem to be still early in the outbreak.
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