This is an update as of April 16th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Ireland is added to the list of analyzed regions. According to the model, Ireland is the only analyzed region in Europe that hasn’t passed the peak yet. That means that the other parameters describing it have lower certainty.
Italy is getting close to the conclusion of the outbreak. It would be interesting to see how it does along with Spain and Austria, as there the lockdown has been eased recently.
The model suggests that New York will have less than 20000 deaths by the time the outbreak is over.
Belgium is projected to have the largest relative fatality rate among all the selected European regions.
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