This is an update as of April 17th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Connecticut is added to the list of selected regions. While New York and New Jersey share many similarities given their sharing the same urban area, Connecticut seems to have some less clean data. We’ll keep exploring it to see how it will all pan out.
Other than that, all the other regions are still on their longer established course from before.
As a general observation, it seems that data coming from Europe is cleaner and fits better the model. US data is less clean and it fits the 4 parameter logistic function with somewhat less accuracy.
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