This is an update as of April 18th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Two more regions are added today, Portugal and Virginia.
The same observation from yesterday still holds, the numbers in the US don’t fit the patter as smoothly as the European numbers and show slightly more erratic behavior.
To make things worse, New York changed it’s data retroactively and loaded a lot more casualties in 1 day, that makes the model less stable, since this practice renders the models less usable.
Maps of all the regions that are considered are included. The lighter colors are the regions that made it past the peak, while some of the darkest colors are still few days to go.
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