April 1st, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

April 1st, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

Categories: COVID-19
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This is an update as of April 1st, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.

4 more regions are added where the outbreak is ramping up: Michigan, Louisiana, Belgium and Illinois.

Exponential Fit

DE stands for Germany, not Delaware.

Error function Fit

Key take aways from the results

Both Michigan and Louisiana have a similar exponential profile, but their evolution is quite different on the Erf profile. This difference signals that the outbreak is smaller in Louisiana and that we can see a peak there sooner, while in Michigan the outbreak seems to be larger already in the community.

We tried to compare warm weather regions with colder weather regions, and just by looking at the table, places like Florida, Louisiana and California have somewhat slower growths than places with colder weather. I’ll make a plot on that correlation on tomorrow’s update.

We also want to see whether population density has an impact and it seems that places with large metropolitan areas have a much faster growth than places with lower population density.

New York and New Jersey have very similar trajectories, with different sizes (parameter c). The size of the outbreak in New York seems to be larger than Spain, or Italy, but the uncertainty there is large since we are still before the peak.

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