This is an update as of April 21st, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Today after a two-day break, we notice that all the selected regions are well evolved on the progress of the curve. Most of the regions are passed the peak and are moving towards the exponential decaying regime in number of deaths.
All the European regions follow a similar pattern in the progression of the disease, following the skewed logistic curve faithfully, while the American regions do show some deviations.
Apart from the data glitch in New York, for which the old (not the “updated”) data is used, even New York seems to be on its course towards the conclusion of the outbreak.
Stay tuned for more analysis, including a novel updated epidemiological model that tries to capture these observations.
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