This is an update as of April 22nd, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Today’s daily update includes the addition of Austria as a new region in Europe.
You can notice that Pennsylvania has a very high size of outbreak, as well as a high estimated time to reaching the peak. This is most likely due to the data being not too uniform there.
We see that most chosen European regions, except Ireland are already passed the peak, meaning that there the worst is really behind.
It’s interesting to notice that Italy, France, UK and Netherlands, the all converge to relative sizes in the same ballpark.
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