This is an update as of April 23rd, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Today one more region is added, Virginia.
Washington and New York are the two American regions that are the most advanced in terms of outbreak progression. Nevada is also high up there, but we have lower number of deaths for it, and the quality of the fit is lower too.
California seems to pick up in number of deaths after it had showed signs of slowdown. This could be the case that Southern California is experiencing a faster growth this time, after the first outbreak started mainly in the Bay Area and it was stopped. Also, we can notice that despite this second pick-up the size of the outbreak in California is still quite small, much smaller than anything we see in the North East and also smaller than Washington state.
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