This is an update as of April 29th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Today daily update comes with the good news that most of the regions are already passed the peak. There are 4 regions that still show the peak some time in the future, but most of them are plagued by somewhat noisy data.
The highest relative size of the outbreak in Europe is shown by Ireland, but it’s still under the effect of the large daily count reported a few days ago. Most likely, after few more days will pass, it will show lower numbers. Other than that, the largest relative size in Europe is shown by Belgium.
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have the largest sizes in the US.
As the outbreak matures, we notice that it shows a lager speed in the original spread than the Spanish flu in 1918.
Stay in touch for another update in a couple of days. We should be able to start seeing the effects of the lockdown relaxation.
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