April 6th, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

April 6th, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

Categories: COVID-19
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This is an update as of April 6th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.

The trend from past couple of weeks of having a decrease in number of reported deaths on Sundays continues. More accurate update from that perspective is expected tomorrow.

Analysis shows that in about half of the places we are already passed the peak.

Another external factor is added: percentage of population older than 65 years of age.

Yesterday’s logistic fit is replaced with a generalized logistic fit:

Associated table with the best fit results for it is included. We may continue using it if it turns out to be stable enough. This model includes a skewness, which is a more realistic representation of the SIR model.

Correlation between those external data and the parameters of the fit

The mean temperature in March vs the speed of the outbreak

Error Function Fit

Generalized Logistic Fit

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