This is an update as of April 9th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Spain and Italy are passed the peak of the outbreak with a very large confidence.
Another good news is that New York and France, 2 regions with a high number of casualties are passing the peak at about this time.
Washington is following a very flat curve that the model has a hard time capturing.
California has overtaken Washington in total number of deaths.
The correlation between the percentage of people who are over 65 and the speed of outbreak onset is positive. It’s April now – some of the strong correlations with the March weather data started to fade away.
Generalized Logistic Fit
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