December 30th, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

December 30th, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

Categories: COVID-19
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This is an update as of December 30th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.

The latest data shows an optimistic view on the progress of SARS-Cov2. We see an improvement in the US and in Europe, but more so in the US.

The first plot shows the speed of the outbreak. Horizontal axis shows a number of total confirmed deaths. Vertical axis shows number of confirmed deaths (percent of population) for the past week.

The situation in Europe and in the US is very similar with a small difference in that the total number of people who died so far is higher in the US than in Europe, but the current speed of the outbreak is higher in Europe.

Second plot shows the states in Europe and US that have the highest current speed of outbreak and the highest number of confirmed deaths respectively so far, along with their trajectories for the past few months.

Besides reinforcing the previous statement about the differences between the 2 areas, the main conclusion is that both in the US and in Europe, the speed of the outbreak is somewhat abating for now.


Speed of Outbreak



Evolution during past 6 weeks





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