This is an update as of March 26th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Key take aways from the results
- We can see from the results posted above, that Washington has the lowest exponent out of all the selected regions.
- New York has the highest exponent out of all the selected regions.
- New Jersey follows a very similar trajectory with New York.
- Looking at the plot for best fit for Italy, we can see that it is definitely anymore on the exponential, we’ll analyze it in more detail later.
- For most of the other regions, except Italy, we are still early in the outbreak.
Erf model fit
- We can see that this model approximates much better the points than the previous exponential fit.
- Based on this model, Italy is just 2 days away from reaching the peak, looking at parameter a.
If the extrapolation continues accurately, we could see a total of 18000 casualties in Italy when all will be over.
As we are still before the peak, the fitted parameters are still not too accurate.