This is an update as of March 27th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
DE stands for Germany, not Delaware.
For most of the regions when we ran the exponential fit we saw a decrease in the exponent, except California and Germany, where it stayed about the same. This could be a sign that we are maybe to move away from the exponential growth, but we are still a distance away from the inflection point.
Looking at the plot for Spain, we can see some good news there, as a lot of the points in the early days are below the best fit line, it’s a sign that Spain too can get close to the peak. In the next few days, when the fit can be more conclusive, I’ll add it too along with Italy to the Erf fit.
Running the fit for Italy with the Erf function, it shows we are just 1 day away from the maximum and then we should see a slight decrease in the number of fatalities. Because for Italy all the data points are still on one side of the inflection point, the error on the C parameter is still large, but today’s updated value is 8602, which if things are symmetrical (and that’s a strong assumption), could hint to about a total of 16000 to 17000 casualties when all will be over.
We’ll come with another analysis that looks in more depth into the dynamics of the outbreak.