March 30th, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

March 30th, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

Categories: COVID-19
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This is an update as of March 30th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.

DE stands for Germany, not Delaware.

3 more regions are added to the analysis, France, Switzerland and Florida. Florida will be there temporarily.

A majority of the regions reported a reduction in the number of deaths, except Netherlands and Germany. This could be potentially attributed to a slowdown in reporting because it was a Sunday. If that is a case, we’ll see an uptick tomorrow accounting for both days.

Italy still shows that we are 2 days past the peak.

The Erf fit is run on all the regions, but all of them, except Italy are quite away from the peak, not even Spain yet. Once we are getting close to that, more regions will be included in the Erf fit, because otherwise there are high uncertainties in the fitted parameters.

New York still has the fastest doubling rate, while Washington the slowest among all the selected regions.

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