This is an update as of May 14th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
The first big news is that all the selected regions for the first time show that they are passed the peak of the outbreak.
One more region is added: Hungary.
All the states in the Northeast corridor have the highest relative size of the outbreak and are the only ones that have a higher size that the large European countries with almost completed outbreaks.
Easter European countries have the smallest relative size of the outbreak, with Greece being the leader. The only US state that joins that pack of Eastern European countries is Texas, with a very low outbreak size. There could be others too in that category but were not selected.
Ireland and UK have a low skewness in the outbreak.
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