This is an update as of May 4th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
Denmark and Minnesota are added to the analysis.
The good news is that out of all the regions, all except just 2 are passed the peak of the outbreak.
We can observe a plateau for a large number of regions that have a skewness in excess of 10. Most likely for these regions we are in 2 different regimes where the social distancing shows a real effect. For the regions that have a lower skewness than 10, either the social distancing was not applied in practice at all, or it was applied much too late, like in the case of Belgium and Italy and most of the population already got infected even before the social distancing was infected.
In order to account better for the social distancing effect on the skewness, a slightly different model needs to be employed and we’re working on that.
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