This is an update as of November 4th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.
This plot presents the evolution of the Covid-19 outbreak for the past 6 weeks. Horizontal axis shows a number of total confirmed deaths. Vertical axis shows number of confirmed deaths (percent of population) for the past week.
For both Europe and US, we selected the regions with the highest number of total confirmed deaths (percent of population): Belgium and New Jersey. Additionally, we selected the regions with the highest number of confirmed deaths (percent of population) for the past week: Czeckia and North Dakota.
While the total number of casualties is higher in the US, the present level of the outbreak is much higher in Europe, so they might be able to catch up with the US on the total numbers too.
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