October 15th, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

October 15th, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

2020-10-15
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Categories: Blog, COVID-19
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This is an update as of October 15th, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.

We continue to monitor the progress of the disease in US and Europe. There were no major changes for the last 2 weeks. The current development of the disease is quite slow compared to the major outbreak period in April of this year.

We expand our analysis with a correlation of the current total development of the outbreak with the current speed of the outbreak. We compiled a series of plots where the number of confirmed deaths (percent of population) during the past week is plotted against the total of the confirmed deaths (percent of population).

US chart has a lot of points in the lower left corner meaning that there are many states that have a low present speed and at the same time have low cumulative impact from the disease.  There are no points in the upper right corner meaning that states that reached a large total number of deaths have a lower current speed of outbreak. This is a statistical clue that might tell us that we could see heard immunity manifesting itself in those regions.

EU and combined plots show quite well that Europe is quite well behind the US in the total development of the disease. This could have various reasons, which we can speculate further in a subsequent entry.

US correlation of the current total development of the outbreak with the current speed of the outbreak

 

 

 

EU correlation of the current total development of the outbreak with the current speed of the outbreak

 

 

 

 

US and EU correlation of the current total development of the outbreak with the current speed of the outbreak

 

 

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