October 1st, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

October 1st, 2020: An analysis of SARS – CoV2 Data and Forecasts

Categories: COVID-19
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This is an update as of October 1st, 2020.
We are analyzing the existing available data on daily deaths caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus and use that in conjunction with certain simple models to predict the evolution of the disease in certain geographical areas. You can read the full introduction here.

We are back with an update.

As most of the regions already expressed a more complex pattern of the outbreak, we are going to forego from now on attempts on trying to follow the pattern since we cannot find anymore a universal shape.

We are tracking the total number of reported deaths versus the entire population for all the states in the US and the countries in Europe. The purpose of this exercise is to see if there is any tendency in plateauing and getting closer to achieving heard immunity. As the Northern hemisphere progresses into the cold season, we would like to track the progress of the Sars-Cov2 casualties along with the cooling of the weather.

One fist conclusion is that the population percentages are higher in the US than in Europe. The highest one is in the US for the state of New Jersey with more than 0.15% of the population.

About half of the European regions have a percentage below 0.01%, while in the US only a few ones achieved that.

Another observation is that the population density in general does correlate with the SARS-Cov2 casualties.

We will be back with an analysis of the speed of progression vs the percentage already achieved aiming to see if we observe a plateauing effect.







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